Mr. Mohamed Muizzu, the new President of Maldives, rose to power on the plank of "India-Out" campaign. Muizzu’s predecessor, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, was seen as being pro-India is a point to be remembered. As the President, Mr Muizzu has undoubtedly been moving away from India and closer to China. The China-Maldives joint statement at the end of Muizzu’s visit bears testimony to their new found friendship. The trip saw hardly-veiled references to India’s “bullying”. On Sunday, Ahmed Nazim, Policy Director, Maldives President’s Office, reportedly said that the “Maldivian delegation” at the first India-Maldives High-Level Core Group meeting “has proposed the removal of Indian troops latest by March' 24”.
The withdrawal of Indian troops from the country was a poll promise, more political than strategic, and in reality, India reportedly has less than 90 soldiers in Maldives. Militarily, economically and strategically, India looms large over its neighbours. Many aspects of India’s internal politics — expansionist rhetoric, selective secularism or conflating religion, illegal migration through porous borders during polls — all of these can make many in the neighbourhood uncomfortable and be used to whip up sentiments in their homeland by the political parties who are seeking power.
Social media jingoism and calling for a boycott of a smaller neighbour do not help us. The recent episode is one such illustration. All Mr Modi did was to visit Lakshadweep islands for a vacation. An unwarranted, juvenile reaction in the form of tweets from Cabinet Ministers opened the social-media war. Indians, as they are notorious for their over-reaction, went on spewing venom on Maldives over Social Media. Huge number of cancellations to Maldives had made a bid economical dent to Maldives. (Most of Indian smaller tourist operators suffered huge loss is another story). This has strained the relationship further.
Smaller countries like Maldives will do their best to leverage the rivalries among greater powers — in this case, India and China. Can India afford to behave so? Maldives may be a smaller country, India may be the 5th largest economy but Can India afford to lose its neighbours to China which will harm them strategically, politically and geographically? The fact is that Maldives is only 700kms from the Indian coast whereas China is over 6,000kms. Be it the tsunami in 2004 or the drinking water crisis a decade later, India was the first to rush to the Maldivians’ aid. At the same time, China’s strategic interests in the Indian Ocean make smaller littoral states perfect targets for Beijing’s diplomatic outreach. India must continue to engage with the Govt and the people of Maldives. As the regional power, it need not be thin-skinned. Indians should realise that there is no place for emotions in foreign relations and social media is not the place where diplomacy is practiced.
South Asia, stretching from Afghanistan to Myanmar and from the Himalayas to the Indian Ocean, is notorious for its complex geopolitics, development deficit, and low regional integration. The involvement of external powers has been a reality. In the past decade, China has been the non-resident power that mattered the most here in this region. Our External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar portrayed India as "a major power in South Asia". To many, it is so; but to many others, it is about "getting there..".
Today, the economic shock of COVID-19 and subsequent escalating debt-burdens, the ongoing war of Ukraine and Gaza, had repeatedly hit the economies of all countries in South Asia. The smaller economies of India’s neighbours have been hit hard, leading to countrywide protests and street violences. Maldives just had its election in September and in 2024, all South Asian countries (except Afghanistan and Nepal) are scheduled to go to the polls, adding a degree of political uncertainty to the mix. Under such circumstances, the more India enjoys cooperative relations with its neighbours, the more influence it can exert in the world. Likewise, neighbours looking at India with a reasonable mindset may internalise that cooperating with the world’s fifth largest economy is clearly in their interest.
North and West: Of the eight neighbours, Pakistan – given its size and history – presents the most formidable challenge. It is a nation consumed in dealing with a debt-ridden economy, serious internal security issues, rising tensions with Afghanistan and recently Iran, and perpetual political uncertainty where the Army is holding onto power constantly. They are waiting to watch the outcome of elections in Feb'24 because whosoever wins, have to wear the crown of thorns. A former Indian high commissioner believes that Sharif’s return to power and Narendra Modi’s expected victory in elections in India may open the doors for a limited collaboration. Others are sceptical, citing differences on the Kashmir issue, the hawkish attitude of the Army Chief, and India's firm policy against Pakistan’s continued encouragement to cross-border terrorism as an instrument of policy.
Afghanistan, proving the predictions of international pundits wrong, has fallen off the radar. The expectation that international solidarity may compel the Taliban Government to accept some inclusiveness in governance and give assurances about eschewing terrorism has not been fulfilled. Hence, the neighbours' preference for minimum transactional relations with the regime may continue in 2024.
Nepal, notorious for frequent change of governments, will continue to engage in a balancing game between India and China. It cannot ignore the compulsions of geographical proximity and logic of cultural and historical ties with India. Yet, it is committed to profiting from China's largesse and remains prone to Beijing’s strategy to sow seeds of dissension in Nepal-India ties.
Bhutan, enjoying unique and close relations with India, has triggered new concerns, of late. These emanate from reports about progress in border delimitation discussions between Bhutan and China, and China's keen interest in establishing diplomatic relations with Bhutan. Doklam situated at the tri-junction boundary of India, Bhutan, and China remains a big question mark, given the absence of dialogue among the three concerned parties. However, a major positive development was the visit of King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck to India in November 2023. India conveyed “full support to the socio-economic development in Bhutan,” including the plan for a smart city at Gelephu and its road connectivity with Kokrajhar (Assam). Further developments will be worth watching.
South and East: Thanks to the assistance of $4 Billion by India, Sri Lanka showed signs of a slow but steady recovery from the economic crisis it has faced since 2022. India's collaboration with Lanka on debt management continues unabated. Thus, India keep continuing its endeavours to enhance cooperation in connectivity, infrastructure development, energy, trade, and investment. Despite these, Sri Lanka also needs considerable assistance from China. India understands this reality. If implemented, Sri Lanka’s latest decision to place a year-long moratorium on visits of Chinese research vessels to its ports will be considered a positive development.
Maldives hogged much attention following the election of Mohamed Muizzu as the President in Sept'2023. This swung from pro-India policy to the ‘India Out’ campaign. Maldives requested India to withdraw its military personnel, refused to renew the MoU on the joint hydrographic survey, and remained absent from the Colombo Security Conclave meeting in Mauritius. These are not healthy signs. However, the meeting between Modi and Muizzu on the sidelines of COP28 seemed a good beginning. Indians, should not get emotional and express anything in social media that can jeopardize this exercise.
Bangladesh facing parliamentary elections on 7 January presents a potentially promising picture as most experts agree about the near-certain victory of the incumbent Awami League. The other two parties – the BNP and JEI – are not in the running. The presence of many independent candidates gives the electorate a semblance of choice. The likely return of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will demonstrate the success of Dhaka's India policy. The past 15 years bear a testimony to an all-round enhancement in bilateral cooperation.
Myanmar today demonstrates the abject failure of its leaders and elites. The country is driven by violent conflict, polarisation, chaos allover, and a deteriorating economy. Neither the military regime nor the resistance has the capability to prevail over the other. Given the possibility of further deterioration of the domestic political situation and China's rising influence, India needs to consider some adjustments to its dual-track policy of maintaining normal relations with the government and supporting the cause of democracy.
