Lessons from Bihar Assembly polls 2025

 

Bihar’s verdict couldn’t be clearer: - Bihar meaning a Big-Haar for the Mahaghatbandhan. Elections today are no longer won on identity alone, or on flashy optics. The real currency is governance, trust, credible delivery, and disciplined organisation. Despite nearly twenty years in power, Nitish Kumar, paired with Narendra Modi, managed to spark a fresh wave. How? Together, they projected something the Opposition couldn’t: Credibility.

The 2025 Bihar Assembly results cut through the noise and deliver a sharp message. Voters have chosen development over identity politics. Caste still matters, but credibility matters more. Welfare helps, but it isn’t the only card that wins the game. And if the Congress wants to stay relevant, it may need to look beyond the Gandhis. The verdict leaves us with few big lessons for Indian politics going forward.

Credibility is the King: If Bihar proved one thing, it’s this: credibility decides elections. Nitish Kumar and PM Modi didn’t just campaign — they convinced. Their governance track record and trust quotient overshadowed a fragmented Opposition. The JD(U)’s revival only reaffirms Bihar’s faith in Nitish, while Modi’s welfare-delivery model continues to resonate strongly.

Be a Result-Master, Not a Reason-Master: The first step toward improvement is accepting ground reality. Living in denial only deepens the crisis. Congress continues to blame the Election Commission — while waving the Constitution at rallies. You cannot undermine a constitutional authority while claiming to “protect” it. At times, Rahul Gandhi’s rhetoric feels less like critique and more like an attempt to prevent internal revolt over his leadership. A political leader must be a Result-Master, not a Reason-Master.

The SIR Logic Doesn’t Add Up: The Opposition claimed 65 lakh voters were removed — roughly 10% of Bihar’s electorate. However, here’s the problem: Bihar’s average turnout is 60%. If 10% were “removed,” the turnout should have dropped. Instead, it rose by 8–9%. Here’s what actually happened: migrant voters returned home to vote to ensure their names weren’t deleted for future elections. They’ve seen the development in states outside Bihar — and they want the same back home. Media may love “vote-chori” narratives, but voters aren’t buying them.

Organisation Wins, Not Just Oratory: Crowds may love charisma, but votes follow organisation. The BJP–JD(U) machinery was razor-sharp: Amit Shah’s micro-management of tickets, caste balancing, conflict handling, and rebellion control ensured a smooth, united campaign. The Opposition, meanwhile, looked disjointed and underprepared.

Welfare Works — But Only Up to a Point: Yes, the Rs 10,000 assistance to women mattered. But to say the NDA won only because of it undermines the real story. Welfare schemes stick only when people trust the leadership behind them. The Opposition’s promise of government jobs — a tempting offer in Bihar — couldn’t override leadership doubts. Doles help, but trust delivers.

Caste Matters, but does not dictate: Caste remains deeply woven into Bihar’s politics — but this election showed cracks in the old walls. When voters are offered a credible development agenda, many are willing to rise above traditional caste lines.

Media hype isn’t a vote Bank:  Jan Suraaj is a textbook case of media visibility outpacing ground reality. On the streets of Bihar, people weren’t buying the buzz. Prashant Kishor made the headlines, but not the headcount. Voters had already drifted back to Nitish’s camp. So-called master strategist, drew a blank. He could not read the people’s pulse. He has proved from time and again that he can be a good strategist only if the input given to him from the ground is right – which can be done by a party who are connected to the ground.

M-Y Bubble: For the RJD, the Muslim–Yadav base — 30% strong — has become a ceiling, not a springboard. The party’s aggressive image repels many backward communities who might otherwise be open to its pitch. Unless Tejashwi moves beyond identity politics, the alliance risks drifting into irrelevance. Tejaswi should learn from NDA to adapt the other MY- Mahila and Yuva. If one MY votes ditched MGB, the other MY votes helped NDA. 

Jungle-Raj haunting: Lalu Prasad Yadav’s sudden media comeback may have hurt more than it helped. It revived old memories — lawlessness, fear, and mis-governance. Viral videos of intimidation and “desi kattas” didn’t help the RJD’s case. Women and first-time voters, especially, responded with a resounding no.

Women power: Women voters shaped this mandate. Nitish’s long-term focus on education, safety, and empowerment — combined with the Modi government's welfare pipeline — built a loyal, decisive women’s vote-bank. The surge in women’s turnout sent a powerful message: their vote is central, not decorative.

Gandhis are no longer Assets but liabilities: This election again spotlighted the Congress Party’s leadership crisis. Rahul Gandhi’s rhetoric may impress Delhi’s drawing rooms, but it rarely resonates on the ground. Even sympathetic political analysts admit the Congress cannot revive under the Gandhi family’s hold. And for the broader Opposition, the question can no longer be avoided: Can a Gandhi-led Congress truly lead an anti-BJP front?

Conclusion: Bihar has spoken — loudly and unmistakably. The path to electoral success in today’s India runs through governance, trust, disciplined organisation, and credible leadership. Beyond Bihar’s borders, these lessons may well shape the next phase of Indian politics.

Caste Equations in Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024

 

Election season is upon us, with excitement brewing after the elections in Haryana and the U.S. Presidential elections. Predicting election outcomes has proven to be a challenge, as recent forecasts crumbled under unexpected results. Will we witness similar surprises in the Maharashtra elections?

In just two days, Maharashtra will conduct its state elections. This is a crucial opportunity for the BJP, which faced disappointment in the recent Lok Sabha polls, where the Mahavikas Aghadi (MVA) triumphed by winning 30 out of 48 seats. This setback to NDA has energized the Indi Bloc. A victory for the MVA in Maharashtra could compel Congress to court leaders like Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu, potentially destabilizing the Central Government and giving the INDI Bloc another shot at power.

The state is currently experiencing unprecedented polarization. The concept of “vote jihad” is frequently discussed, and the significant turnout from the Muslim community has bolstered Congress's stance. In the Dhule constituency, although the BJP led by 190,000 votes across various segments, they ultimately lost due to a strong turnout in Malegaon, where the Muslim population favored Congress, flipping the seat by a narrow margin of 3,000 votes. This unexpected outcome has left Congress in a frenzy, rallying around themes of constitutional integrity while striving to deplete Hindu voters in the lines of caste amid debates surrounding reservations and caste census issues.

Until August, the MVA coalition of Congress, NCP (Sharad Pawar faction), and Shiv Sena (UBT) appeared confident about securing a majority. However, as the election date neared, internal dissent emerged from both sides. Despite efforts at damage control, the political landscape has shifted, suggesting that the ruling Mahayuti alliance may emerge victorious, albeit by a slim margin.

It is often said that in India, we do not CAST OUR VOTES, BUT VOTE OUR CASTE.  Let’s examine the caste dynamics at play in Maharashtra:

Marathas: Comprising approximately 30% of the state’s population, the Maratha community remains influential. Rahul Gandhi's comment on equitable rights (jitni aabaadi, utni haq) has sparked debate on whether similar principles should extend to Hindus. The community, once unified, is now fragmented, complicating voter consolidation. Notable withdrawals, such as that of Jarange, could mitigate further division. While many Maratha peasants may align with the MVA, the overall voting pattern remains uncertain.

OBCs: Representing 38% of the voter base, this group is diverse and lacks homogeneity. Issues of local relevance, candidate selection, and community representation will be pivotal. The BJP has sought to bolster OBC representation, which could provide an advantage, as leaders like Chagan Bhujbal work to rally this electorate.

Dalits: The Dalit community is divided into two segments. The Mahar community, which advocates for Neo-Buddhism, is unlikely to support the BJP, while non-Mahar SC communities such as Mang, Matang, and Chambar have remained aligned with the party. The BJP's outreach through initiatives like the Vanvasi Kalyan Kendra has garnered some support among Dalits, but the majority sentiment may still lean toward the MVA, contingent upon local dynamics.

Muslims: With polarization reaching new heights, AIMPLB representatives have called for a united Muslim vote in favour of the Congress alliance as a strategy to oust the BJP from power, both in Maharashtra and in the Centre. Their 17-point agenda, which includes demands for funding and quotas, reflects a strong desire for cohesive voting. Although Owaisi may divert some votes, the Muslim electorate appears determined not to split their votes, favoring the MVA.

Both the MVA and Mahayuti have governed Maharashtra for the past 2.5 years, yet neither has significantly advanced state development. As a result, both camps are resorting to populist schemes to win votes, raising concerns about fiscal responsibility and long-term progress.

A BJP win in Maharashtra could ensure political stability, reinforcing India's momentum on the global stage. Conversely, a loss could alter political calculations nationwide.

It is crucial that voters prioritize informed choices over caste affiliations and consider candidates based on development perspectives. However, will parties continue to rely on freebie policies at the expense of genuine development? The coming days will reveal much.

White paper or Whitewash?

 White paper or Whitewash?

The Finance Minister of India presented a white paper on 8th of Feb' 2024 in the Parliament of India. It accused the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance Govt of leaving the economy in a bad shape, rather, "crisis" after 10 years of the their rule under Dr Manmohan Singh. The document also claimed that the UPA Govt inherited a "healthy economy" from the NDA Govt led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee and left for their successors a "non-performing" economy.

Although the party in power is expected to return to power, the timing of tabling the white paper, that has nothing but accusations of the previous Govt is raising many eye-brows.

In it, the BJP said it faced a "hydra-headed challenge" in fixing the Indian economy and "restoring its fundamentals to sound health", noting it received one of the world's more fragile economies. "... now, we are among the 'top five' (and) making the third highest contribution to global growth..."

It also mentioned, ""Then, the world lost confidence in India's economic potential and dynamism. Now, with our economic stability and growth prospects, we inspire hope in others. Then, we had a scam-riddled 12-day Commonwealth Games. Now, we successfully hosted a far-bigger and year-long G20 Presidency in 2023, showcasing India at its best... (and) providing acceptable solutions to global problems."

The white paper referred to a number of scams and corruption cases that marked the 10 years of the UPA government, including the 2G and Coalgate scandals. It also highlighted the serious economic concerns like double-digit inflation, the foreign exchange crisis, and a "policy paralysis" that affected investment despite the so-called Economy-Expert leading the Government.

The white paper had a comparitive statement for every issue it raised. If 2G corruption was mentioned, it detailed how the 4G execution had happened. It said, "Now, we have extensive coverage of the population under 4G, with the lowest rates and the world's fastest rollout of 5G in 2023. Then, we had the Coalgate scam. Now, we have built systems for transparent and objective auctions to harness natural resources..."

"Then, we had double-digit inflation. Now, inflation has been brought down to (a) little over five per cent. Then, we had a foreign exchange crisis. Now, we have record foreign exchange reserves of over USD 620 billion. Then, we had 'policy-paralysis'; infrastructure was not a priority. Now, (there is) the virtuous cycle of investment, growth, employment and entrepreneurship, and savings..."

"In sum, the progress achieved in the ten years of our government has overcome the malaise and paralysis of the previous ten years of the UPA government. In 2024, confidence and purpose have replaced the diffidence and drift of 2014..." the white paper declared.

In a nutshell, the so-called WHITE PAPER was nothing but a political propaganda or a political statement. There is nothing new or informative in the white paper presented. If the Government was so keen on tabling a White Paper on the Indian Economy comparing the decade of UPA with the decade of NDA, they shoudl have appointed a group of neutral experts who should have considered the global equations at various points of time.

To me, this is more of a White wash than a white paper that kept on bragging about the Government. What do you say?