The nuclear deal issue has taken a back seat, courtesy, misrule of our Govt in Jammu and shorter memory of public affairs among us. The signing of deal was supposed to be the shot in the arm of the present government for which they staged a mockery of democracy in nation’s interest.
As expected the countries of NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group) board have thrown the spoke on the wheels of progress on waiver draft pertaining to the nuclear deal between India and USA. Already this Govt is charged for having limited India's strategic options through a pact (that makes conducting a nuclear test difficult) and now with the opposition from NSG, India may be forced to accept new multilateral commitments as to empower the deal. The government might find it increasingly difficult to sell such a deal at home.
The opposition from NSG was expected by everyone, however, the experts in the Government failed to foresee the fiasco that happened at NSG. This Government had 3 full years to do home work on this subject but it preferred to sleep on it. In the last moment, it woke up and pretended to act. They were also ready to lose the government for this sake after enjoying power for almost full term doing nothing. Perhaps, we failed to take the confidence of other countries of NSG while maintaining our closer relationship with USA. The countries that oppose India’s deal are New Zealand, Austria and Switzerland. These countries insist that India sign the NPT. Brazil, South Africa are the other countries who support India.
Come what may, India should not accede to a ban on access to ENR (enrichment and reprocessing) technology. It is reported that our old friend Russia too had expressed reservations on transferring this technology to India. The Indian insistence on ENR technology was a big deal during the 123 negotiations with the US. The US, which has the most stringent laws on transferring ENR technology, has denied it to every country in the world, except Australia.
India possesses enrichment and reprocessing technology, and it has been completely indigenously developed by Dr Homi Sethna. Despite having both enrichment and reprocessing plants, India has not been able to scale up the technology to commercial levels.
This deal is critical to India not only in Power-generation sector but this could provide India a chance to become a supplier of low-cost nuclear reactors. After the successful inauguration of Kaiga 3 project in Karnataka, the 220 MW pressurized heavy water reactor will start generating power by this month end. The cost per KW installed is expected to be around Rs984/- (US$ 23) and we can eye on marketing this to countries like Cambodia, Vietnam, and Indonesia. The average market price is around Rs 1500/- per Kw. For this to happen, we have to win the confidence of NSG Board and this is possible only after we redraft our IAEA with US again.
If India has to get the deal cleared by the board of NSG, we have to re-initiate our negotiations with IAEA. This has to happen before November when they meet again. If we miss the bus this time, it would be a street of not-return for us. We are not sure how the ruling Government would approach this. Now, Left would fire on all cylinders to halt the progress of the Government in this regard. With elections due early next year and the political permutations & combinations are to take place for an alliance, Congress might find all the ways to delay this further. Instead, they might be on a hunt to find reasons as to blame the government that would succeed them.
Let us wait and see hoping whatever happens prove good for India.
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