Saudi Arabia & Pakistan - Strategic Defence Pact 2025

 

PAKISTAN – SAUDI ARABIA STRATEGIC DEFENCE PACT – 2025

On 18 September 2025, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a Strategic Defence Pact, under which both nations pledged to assist each other in the event of an attack by any enemy — including nuclear threats. The pact was announced with much fanfare: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s aircraft was accorded a grand reception, comparable to the welcome extended to U.S. President Donald Trump just weeks earlier. Immediately after signing, PM Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief General Asim Munir departed for the UNGA conference in the U.S., where they were scheduled to meet President Trump on the sidelines.

While the event is being projected as historic, I hold a contrarian view: this pact is more show than substance. In reality, it represents Washington’s strategy of keeping Pakistan firmly within its orbit, rather than granting it “strategic autonomy.” Free lunches in the White House are never truly free; they always demand repayment in kind. My observations are as follows:

1. U.S. Involvement Cannot Be Ruled Out
   It is difficult to believe this deal was concluded without tacit U.S. approval. Suggesting otherwise is as misleading as claiming Washington was unaware of Israel’s missile strike on Qatar — an attack that was only possible because U.S. radars and A2/AD systems in the region were deliberately turned off. Given that America’s largest Middle East base is in Doha, it is clear that both Riyadh and Islamabad sought U.S. blessings.

2. CENTCOM’s Presence in Riyadh
   U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) chief Admiral Brad Cooper was in Riyadh just as the pact was signed. According to Saudi Press Agency, he met Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman on 16 September 2025 to discuss defence cooperation and regional developments. This underscores America’s role, possibly even as a counter to Israel’s aggression against Qatar.

3. Pakistan’s Nuclear Program Was Never Truly Independent
   Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal was built with Saudi financing and America’s deliberate blind eye. Former U.S. President Ronald Reagan looked away while Pakistan clandestinely developed the bomb, a fact well documented by Pakistani author Ayesha Siddiqui. To claim the U.S. had no knowledge is simply false.

4. Operation “Sindoor” Evidence
   The operation exposed that Pakistan’s nukes are not under its sovereign control. The Nuclear Command shelter at Noor Khan Air Base was U.S.-built, and allegedly around 150 American personnel perished there. This points to deeper U.S. involvement, hidden under layers of denial.

5. Target is Iran, Not Israel
   Saudi Arabia’s real threat comes from Iran and the Houthi rebels in Yemen, not Israel (which has quietly cooperated with Riyadh). Thus, this pact is effectively a nuclear umbrella against Iran, extended indirectly by the U.S. via Pakistan. With this move, Washington solved two issues: easing Saudi fears of Iran’s nukes and guaranteeing cash-strapped Pakistan financial aid from Riyadh. General Munir’s repeated U.S. visits — and his family’s expedited U.S. citizenship in June 2025 — underline this alignment.

6. Wider Regional Fallout
   The pact worsens Saudi-Pakistan ties with Iran and will have ripple effects in Afghanistan, destabilising West Asia further. Instability benefits Washington, enabling it to dominate while rivals remain entangled in crises.

7. China and India in the Crosshairs
   With Pakistan and Saudi Arabia locked into U.S. dependence, Beijing will be forced to deepen ties with Iran. This should also be seen against the backdrop of India’s growing closeness with China. The U.S. is deliberately stirring instability around India — from Bangladesh to Myanmar, Nepal, and Sri Lanka — with China as the ultimate target.

8. Chaos as a U.S. Strategy
   American global supremacy thrives on chaos. The more fragmented and conflict-ridden the world becomes, the stronger Washington’s position remains, while challengers are kept preoccupied with local crises.

9. Implications for India
   For New Delhi, this could be a silver lining. The assumption that India depends entirely on Saudi oil is flawed. Iran could now open up more freely, giving India greater leverage over the Chabahar port and access to Central Asia. Prime Minister Modi must remain wary of U.S. gestures, like Trump’s birthday wishes, which mask policies hostile to Indian interests.

10. Saudi Arabia’s Role in Indo-Pak Conflict
    There is no real threat to India from this pact. If war breaks out, Saudi Arabia’s support to Pakistan will likely be limited to financial aid. In fact, Riyadh might even play a moderating role in restraining Islamabad’s aggression.

11. Afghanistan – An Opportunity for India
    India should seize the chance to engage with the Taliban regime. In the event of conflict with Pakistan, Afghanistan could serve as a second front.

12. OIC and Gulf Council – A Theatrical Display
    Recent meetings of the OIC and Gulf Council were largely symbolic, aimed at placating Qatar. None of these states took real action against Israel. Most, including Saudi Arabia, maintain covert ties with Tel Aviv.

13. Aimed at Isolating Iran and Distracting China
    Ultimately, this pact seeks to pull Pakistan away from Iran and force China into a difficult position. For India, it opens opportunities in Afghanistan and Central Asia through Chabahar.

14. Pakistan’s Limited Capability
    Realistically, Pakistan cannot offer Saudi Arabia meaningful defence when it struggles against the Afghan Taliban and domestic insurgents like the BLA/BLF. Operation Sindoor exposed the hollowness of its nuclear deterrent. This pact is therefore more psychological than strategic — designed to widen rifts within the Muslim world.

Conclusion

This defence pact lacks real substance. The U.S. will never allow Israel to attack Saudi Arabia, which confirms the pact is directed solely at Iran. It provides Saudi Arabia with psychological assurance, not genuine security. The true test will come if Saudi Arabia asks Pakistan to commit forces against Yemen’s Houthis — something Pakistan refused to do under Nawaz Sharif in 2014–15. What has changed now?

In essence, this is a sell-out of Pakistan to the U.S., engineered by General Asim Munir. Whether the pact can be implemented effectively remains doubtful, given Saudi Arabia’s equally close ties with India — as seen when it conferred its highest national award on PM Modi. For now, this agreement appears less a strategic breakthrough and more a geopolitical manoeuvre serving American interests.